Comments on: Rent-a-shirt http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/ Sat, 04 Feb 2012 23:35:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Tom http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2416 Tom Wed, 04 Jun 2008 05:50:26 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2416 <p>"For instance, to the counterfactual claim "What would have happened had Hitler drunk coffee instead of tea on the afternoon that he committed suicide?", the timeline would have remained unchanged — Hitler in all likelihood still would have committed suicide on April 30, 1945, regardless of what he had to drink that afternoon. However, to the counterfactual "What would have happened had Hitler died in the July, 1944, assassination attempt?", all sorts of possibilities become readily apparent, starting with the reasonable assumption that the Nazi generals would have in all likelihood sued for peace, bringing an early end to World War II. Thus, the counterfactual brings into sharp relief the importance of Hitler as an individual and how his personal fate shaped the course of the War and, ultimately, of world history.</p> <p>Counterfactual history is in many ways a reaction to the extreme de-personalization and determinism of much of current historical studies, with their emphasis on social history as opposed to event- and personality-driven history.[citation needed]"</p> <p>...</p> <p>"In his 1964 book Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History, Fogel tried to use quantitative methods to imagine what the U.S. economy would have been like in 1890 if there were no railroads. [2] Fogel hypothesizes that, in the absence of the railroad, America’s large canal system would have been expanded and its roads would have been improved through pavement; both of these improvements would take away from the social impact of the railroad. He estimates that “the level of per capita income achieved by January 1, 1890 would have been reached by March 31, 1890, if railroads had never been invented.” [3]"</p> <p>See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_history</p> “For instance, to the counterfactual claim “What would have happened had Hitler drunk coffee instead of tea on the afternoon that he committed suicide?”, the timeline would have remained unchanged — Hitler in all likelihood still would have committed suicide on April 30, 1945, regardless of what he had to drink that afternoon. However, to the counterfactual “What would have happened had Hitler died in the July, 1944, assassination attempt?”, all sorts of possibilities become readily apparent, starting with the reasonable assumption that the Nazi generals would have in all likelihood sued for peace, bringing an early end to World War II. Thus, the counterfactual brings into sharp relief the importance of Hitler as an individual and how his personal fate shaped the course of the War and, ultimately, of world history.

Counterfactual history is in many ways a reaction to the extreme de-personalization and determinism of much of current historical studies, with their emphasis on social history as opposed to event- and personality-driven history.[citation needed]“

…

“In his 1964 book Railroads and American Economic Growth: Essays in Econometric History, Fogel tried to use quantitative methods to imagine what the U.S. economy would have been like in 1890 if there were no railroads. [2] Fogel hypothesizes that, in the absence of the railroad, America’s large canal system would have been expanded and its roads would have been improved through pavement; both of these improvements would take away from the social impact of the railroad. He estimates that “the level of per capita income achieved by January 1, 1890 would have been reached by March 31, 1890, if railroads had never been invented.” [3]“

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_history

]]> By: Tom http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2415 Tom Tue, 03 Jun 2008 19:40:56 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2415 <p>To answer your question: "To what extent do tiny decisions in life affect things downstream?" I think the answer, intuitively, must be: zero to massively, in a completely unpredictable way.</p> <p>If hitler had died in the womb, would WWII have occurred?</p> <p>If you select an new alternative sandwich filling for lunch today, will it make any difference to anything? Probably not, but what if your co-worker or even yourself are allergic to something in that sandwich? Then yes!</p> <p>The really, really frustrating thing is that it's impossible to do the the experiment, to compare the two alternatives. </p> <p>Until we have time machines that is...!</p> To answer your question: “To what extent do tiny decisions in life affect things downstream?” I think the answer, intuitively, must be: zero to massively, in a completely unpredictable way.

If hitler had died in the womb, would WWII have occurred?

If you select an new alternative sandwich filling for lunch today, will it make any difference to anything? Probably not, but what if your co-worker or even yourself are allergic to something in that sandwich? Then yes!

The really, really frustrating thing is that it’s impossible to do the the experiment, to compare the two alternatives.

Until we have time machines that is…!

]]> By: Niknej http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2412 Niknej Mon, 02 Jun 2008 16:48:35 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2412 <p>Having worked with our illustrious blog author recently and knowing the organisation where he works well, I am more fascinated about what on earth he felt warranted the smarter of his shirts to be worn or who he felt would be examining his conduct of dress so closely - or maybe he is interviewing his way out of a rather trying time!</p> Having worked with our illustrious blog author recently and knowing the organisation where he works well, I am more fascinated about what on earth he felt warranted the smarter of his shirts to be worn or who he felt would be examining his conduct of dress so closely – or maybe he is interviewing his way out of a rather trying time!

]]> By: Hughie http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2410 Hughie Fri, 30 May 2008 19:20:36 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2410 <p>Why am I here, what's it all about, where's it all going to? </p> <p>Am I just a speck in a multiverse of possibilities? </p> <p>Is it just about watching Britain's Got Talent with a stroller blocking the passageway?</p> Why am I here, what’s it all about, where’s it all going to?

Am I just a speck in a multiverse of possibilities?

Is it just about watching Britain’s Got Talent with a stroller blocking the passageway?

]]> By: Francis http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2409 Francis Fri, 30 May 2008 11:57:29 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2409 <p>This reminds me of the explanation of how to think in 10 dimensions: </p> <p>http://francisshanahan.com/detail.aspx?cid=505</p> <p>We all have such choices which seemingly are inconsequential only to have a perceived knock on effect. You might ask after I post this...what would have happened had I not written about my shirts on my blog? Shanahan would never have re-linked the 10dimensions thing. </p> <p>I dunno if there's any point to any of it.</p> This reminds me of the explanation of how to think in 10 dimensions:

http://francisshanahan.com/detail.aspx?cid=505

We all have such choices which seemingly are inconsequential only to have a perceived knock on effect. You might ask after I post this…what would have happened had I not written about my shirts on my blog? Shanahan would never have re-linked the 10dimensions thing.

I dunno if there’s any point to any of it.

]]> By: Roger http://blog.osirra.com/2008/05/30/rent-a-shirt/comment-page-1/#comment-2408 Roger Fri, 30 May 2008 09:43:46 +0000 http://www.osirra.com/?p=1220#comment-2408 <p>Mid-life crisis looming huh?</p> Mid-life crisis looming huh?

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