It’s a lottery
Let’s assume I bought a Euromillions lottery ticket in the UK on Friday. And I didn’t check the result that evening, but knew that 300 million likeminded people across Europe also bought a ticket for that draw.
I am then told that the £90m jackpot is to be split between the owners of two tickets, both of which were bought in the UK. On knowing that information, do the odds of me having the winning ticket increase?
I then find out that one of the winning tickets is owned by someone who lives on my street. (This piece is fiction, btw.) Do my chances of winning increase?
It’s like the Monty Hall problem. And no. They don’t.